Today is a day to pause collecting the news and to absorb what all this may be about.
Please read in conjunction with this:
Seemorerocks
Some time between 2016 and 2020, while we were going through all the shenanigans of the first Trump administration I said several times that Trump would not “Make America Better” but would preside over the collapse of the American Empire.
That is proving to be the case.
It was not the Democrats, with their unbelievable corruption or the senile Biden presiding over a war on Russia through America’ proxy, Ukraine but definitely Donald Trump, blackmailed by Netanyahu and afraid of exposure, who allowed himself to be talked into an easy war on Iran that would be over in weeks.
Almost as soon as the war broke out in March and the Iranians closed the Gulf of Hormuz over which it had easy control I, as well as anyone with a brain to think, knew where this was going. We had a brief period when this was in the headlines and everyone talked about increased prices of petrol at the pump.
That is as far as it went in the Mainstream.
It all died down in the headlines and everything “returned to normal” and, in this country even the Taxpayers Union mothballed their excellent site, attacked by the government, which monitored fuel on its way to the country on the grounds that the situation had “normalised”.
At this, coinciding with the headlines screaming that the situation could no longer be ‘managed ‘ and was spiralling out of control again.
Not that you would know from perusing the legacy media, especially in New Zealand.
Early on,I discovered that the reason that the availability of fuel remained at about 20 days and went much below that was, firstly, that it took at least 40 days for oil tankers with oil that left the Gulf before it was closed to reach their generations.
Governments and oil companies were able to scour the world for sources of supply and, as it transpired, Donald Trump was able to sell oil that he said was in plentiful supply. “ Come and do business with America”, “Buy our oil which is in plentiful supply”, he kept on saying.
It transpired that this was done by emptying America’s emergency reserves right down to the level of sludge. According to Larry Johnson, while America would never run out of petroleum, which was locally -produced ‘sweet oil’ this was not the case with either diesel or jet fuel which comes from ‘sour’ oil which America has to be imported like the rest of the world.
Johnson has had to repeat this ad nauseum because I do not think people have picked this up. Neither have they picked up the excellent analysis of Chris Martensen who knows the energy market like no other.
Here is Chris Martensen today:
All this has put severe constraints on the American military.
With reserves going down to sludge and no way to fill them, Put simply what is left has to be rationed.
Either there is jet fuel for the military or for civilian aviation, not both.
This is, of course, being hidden from us and is not yet apparent but I am sure it will.
Yesterday I listened to a discussion between the Health Ranger, Mike Adams, Michael Yon and someone I had not heard of before, Matt Bracken whose only claim to fame was being an ex-naval Seal and author. However, born just a year after me (1957), has a good memory as well as an analytical mind.
I posted this yesterday but it did not attract anything like the attention it should have. It was definitely worth the time and effort. Although some of the banter may seem exaggerated in my mind the analysis, in my mind, was first-class.
Both Michael Yon and Prof Steve Keen have been talking about the danger of famine (Yon says, engineered) as a result of a shortage of oil and diesel, but critically, of derivatives such as sulphur and, most particularly, fertiliser which, largely, can only be sourced from the Persian Gulf.
War correspondent Michael Yon has described, is inseparable from the energy war. Without affordable fuel, fertilizer production collapses, and food systems fail… Michael Yon, detailed how the destruction of desalination plants in the Gulf would be a death sentence for millions
Here is Prof. Steve Keen
https://youtube.com/shorts/ywU3SECzBh4?si=JmaaC_arrpJ_mYvs
Not only do we have the closure (now almost complete) of the Gulf of Hormuz but the destruction of energy infrastructure, in Iran, through American attacks, but also, in the Gulf states with very effective retaliation by the Iranians.
Now, we have actions by the Houthis in the Red Sea that further reduces the availability of oil from the Saudis’ West-East pipeline.
Today:
We have to add to that attacks on Russian refineries by the West through Ukrainian drone attacks which have reportedly taken out 40% of refining capacity. I was shocked to learn from Mr. Bracken (something that needs fact checking), that the Russians now need to import diesel.
We have to add the desalination plants which the Gulf States are almost completely dependent on for potable water. Any retaliation by the Iranians hitting desalination plants in the GCC would inevitably lead to the deaths of millions.
That is why Matt Bracken calls this World War E.
E stands for energy but could just as easily stand for Epstein. But that is not something that I would emphasise because it is so obvious and the connection is pointed out ad nauseum by commenters on this Substack.
I have a suspicion that the all-important energy component is overlooked by most.
Mr Bracken has an infographic to illustrate this.
This brings me to another point - the ‘winnability’ of this war.
Clearly, this is not a war that can be won by the United States or the collective West.
We are seeing the destruction of American hegemony with every single day.
This is illustrated on the battlefield with this infographic.
The Americans have what allowed them to exercise hegemony for so long - a navy second-to-none and domination in the air. But along comes Iran with its hypersonic missiles, including the Khorramshar, kept deep underground and which can be maneuvered, mid -flight, to hit their targets with increasing accuracy.
That makes American naval ships and aircraft nothing more than sitting ducks which have not yet been hit only because the Iranians have not yet (in their carefully-constructed ladder of escalation) decided to do so.
One nugget of information I gleaned from yesterday’s interview was that the Iranians, probably with Chinese or Russian intel, can identify aircraft and hit them while they are still preparing to take off.
Sitting ducks.
And yet, despite this, we have constant escalation:
Not only that but we have the name, Pickaxe Mountain, coming out of nowhere.
Here is Matt Bracken:
Much has been made of Putin, when his back is against the wall (as it is arguably, now), resorting to nuclear weapons. But I suspect this relates far more to Netanyahu or, in the present case, Donald Trump.
When it finally sinks into his demented mind, and to his insane lieutenants, that this war is unwinnable and cannot be ‘managed’ through lies and propaganda, might he resort to the unspeakable?
No one can see inside Donald’s head but if that happens a war that is quickly spiraling out of control, solely because of his actions, might become ‘game over’, Canadian Prepper’s ‘Day X’.
Unlike Canadian Prepper this is not something that can be prepped for.
It would truly ‘Game Over’ and mark the end of human civilisation and would be the sole responsibility of Donald Trump trying to avoid the Epstein revelations and a demonic Netanyahu trying to stay out of prison.
Let us pray I am wrong and none of this comes to pass.