The delusional computer modelling of NZ economists

I've never encountered a computer model that proved correct -m: "garbage in - garbage out"

There is someone at Westpac Bank, Kelly Eckhold, who has been analysing scenarios for supplies of oil to New Zealand, presumably for the government.

At first I thought he was doing good work but now I think he is an idiot along with the requisite amount of academic arrogance to go along with it.

No wonder we are being sold down the river.

He has modified his estimate of the length of the war from 3 weeks to 3 months (!!)

Who is he relying on for his estimate. Marco Rubio and presumably the delusional egomaniac, Donald Trump, for his estimates

This is the sort of nonsense he has come back with, completely divorced from the reality on the ground

IGobb wouldn’t mind betting that the one scenario he hasn’t reported to his government clients the one that is the most likely - that the Iranians are not going to back down and this conflict could continue indefintely until the Americans are ejected from the Persian Gulf.

We are facing catastrophe in this country and we rely on these idiots to tell us what is going on.

Meanwhile, this is the sort of tosh Mr.Eckhold has come up with.

Gobbledygook.

But I need only to wait and see what transpires

But Westpac’s chief economist Kelly Eckhold said he still expected some growth in the economy this year - although there was the potential for that to change.

“In the forecast update that we put out a couple of days ago, that assumed that things were going to get better within a month. If that doesn’t happen then things get darker quite quickly. Confidence levels about forecasts are quite low right now because there’s a lot of things we don’t know.

“You can’t discount the possibility [of less economic growth]. The only thing is that we are coming from a starting point where we were expecting a pretty solid year. So, we’ve got further to fall before you get into that genuinely negative growth environment that we experienced back in 2024.”

The big concern was how long the conflict lasted, he said.

“We have to keep in mind that significant damage has already been done, and it won’t be fixed quickly. There may also be risk premia built into concerns about fuel availability, prices… I’m very worried. I think this is a very, very serious situation.”

He said the lower exchange rate would make the price of imported goods higher and make travel overseas more expensive for New Zealanders. But it was a positive for exporters.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/03/28/why-economists-are-very-worried-about-what-lies-ahead/