Everyone else is rationing. NZ is still motoring on.
If you believed them it would seem that the New Zealand government, alone in the world has a unique leverage (outside Trump’s America to which it is wedded), to snap its fingers and summon oil tankers at will when this option is not available to its trading partners - certainly not to Australia or to the countries it gets its refined oil from.
This is almost Trumpesque.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the dropping stock levels were not concerning and these levels would continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks.
“We’ve had assurances from fuel companies that their order books are full through to the end of May, that they are having no challenges placing future orders in June.”
Almost certainly more accurate than anything MBIE puts out
From one of the view voices that is telling the truth, Nathan Surendran
Everyone Else Is Rationing. We’re Still Motoring On.
Nathan Surendran
Apr 24, 2026
New Zealand is the only country in its supply chain that has not moved to restrict domestic fuel use since the Hormuz disruption began.
South Korea, China, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, all have told their citizens to use less. The IEA coordinated a 400 million barrel release from strategic reserves on 11 March, its largest ever. New Zealand has held at Phase 1 of the Fuel Response Plan. EECA’s public message is to buy fuel normally. The government says restrictions don’t create fuel, so there is no point in imposing them.
That position misses a second-order effect.
What our suppliers see
The countries that sell us refined product are restricting their own populations, then looking across at us outbidding theirs in the commercial market for the product they are rationing at home.
Two examples, from our two major suppliers of refined product.
South Korea. President Lee Jae Myung told parliament in early April to “save every drop of fuel”. Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan tabled an Energy Conservation Response Plan on 24 March. Public-sector odd-even vehicle rationing by licence plate took effect at midnight on the 25th, with enforcement action against heads of non-compliant agencies. LNG in power generation is cut 20%. Conservation guidelines include brief showers and limits on washing machine use. In Korean media, older citizens are openly comparing the moment to the 1997-98 IMF gold collection drive, when people queued to donate wedding rings and heirloom jewellery to pay down sovereign debt. One citizen comment: “If the country is in trouble, we can endure this much inconvenience.”
Singapore. PM Lawrence Wong called on 2 April for everyone to play their part in Singapore’s energy resilience. On 8 April, the National Environment Agency and the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment directed all ministries, departments and statutory boards to set air conditioning at 25°C, shorten lighting and lift hours, and switch off non-essential equipment. Households are nudged the same way with up to S$400 in Climate Vouchers. Framing: whole-of-nation effort. Singapore is a refining hub, not a net importer, and about half its gas arrives by pipeline from Malaysia and Indonesia, bypassing Hormuz. It is not facing physical shortage. It is acting anyway, visibly, because leading by example inside ASEAN is worth doing.
This matters more than it would if our suppliers were Canadian or British. The societies across that region place an explicit value on collective action in a crisis, and on being seen to pull one’s weight among trading neighbours. Hoarding or outbidding while others tighten their belts is a specific kind of social failure, one that counterparties notice and remember.
I don’t believe for a minute that they aren’t noticing.
The medium-term risk
If the situation deteriorates, and the disruption is now past 50 days, we may eventually need to ask supply partners for help. Priority loading. Swap arrangements. Diplomatic asks, not commercial ones.
The first question will be: what did you do. What did you ask of your own population when we were asking something of ours.
“We paid more” is not a good answer. “We outbid our neighbours” is worse.
Commercial relationships in the region run alongside relational ones, not underneath them. Reputation compounds. NZ Inc is small enough to be politely dropped down a priority list when the calls start to be rationed rather than the fuel.
Moving to Phase 2 doesn’t create a single extra litre. It does three other things.
It gives the public lead time to adjust.
It puts NZ in the same posture as our suppliers, doing the same thing they are doing, for the same reason. That is how reputations are maintained when the room gets tight.
It preserves our standing if the conversation stops being commercial.
Acting late and being right is supply collapse in a 100% import-dependent economy. Acting early and being wrong is inconvenience. That asymmetry is standard risk management.
Nathan Surendran is Principal Consultant at Schema Consulting Ltd and Chairperson of the Wise Response Society. His white paper “The Limits to the Energy Transition: What Physics Means for New Zealand’s Economy” is available here. https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition
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References
Fuel Response Plan 2026 factsheet: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-03/Fuel%20Response%20Plan%20factsheets.pdf
IEA 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker
Wise Response open letter: https://wiseresponse.substack.com/p/open-letter-new-zealand-needs-an
“Every country in our supply chain has declared an emergency”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/every-country-in-our-supply-chain
Edward Miller, The Post, on the scrapped diesel reserve: https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360976384/weve-been-left-dangerously-exposed-failure-build-public-diesel-reserve
Time on global fuel rationing and Lee Jae Myung’s parliamentary address: https://time.com/article/2026/04/05/strait-of-hormuz-fuel-rationing-oil/
Seoul Economic Daily on Korean vehicle rationing and IMF gold drive comparison: https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/03/24/korea-launches-nationwide-energy-saving-campaign-with
Seoul Economic Daily on LNG cuts and odd-even rationing: https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/03/24/korea-enforces-public-vehicle-rationing-cuts-lng-power
Singapore MSE/NEA joint statement on public sector energy conservation: https://indiplomacy.com/2026/04/10/singapore-government-leads-strong-national-push-for-energy-conservation-and-resilience/
Singapore Green Building Council on Go 25 and public sector push: https://www.sgbc.sg/public-sector-leads-energy-conservation-push/
More great news for New Zealand
Australia is still full steam ahead - with reasonable prices at the petrol pump. The stupid government has not implemented any measures to mitigate what is coming.
Luxon's "elite" zionist jew mates with their Queenstown boltholes must have told him that everything would be OK, lol.