This is the latest I have about fast-moving events. I will, no doubt, update later in the day
Zero Hedge
Israel Says Readying 'Imminent' Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region
Summary:
Middle East braces for Israeli 'retaliation' attack on Iran after Israel War Cabinet meets
Israeli Air Force says it has completed 'preparation' and that an attack is 'imminent'
US officials tell WSJ they believe Israel will launch an anti-Iran operation today
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi: Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel “will be met with a response.”
Netanyahu orders military: draw up a list of targets
Several major airlines canceling flights to Tel Aviv and whole region.
State Dept spox: “commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct”.
G7 working on measures against Iran as China, Russia signal weekend attack won't hurt relations with Tehran
European allies urge Israel against military response
Tehran warns that it's ready to hit back harder.
IRGC says it is willing to hit back from Iran for any new Israeli escalation, including then it attacks in Syria.
Iran FM: we warned Washington that response in face of an Israeli attack will be "faster, stronger, and broader" (via AJ).
US reiterates that it "does not seek conflict with Iran."
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Update(1329ET): It appears things are moving fast, via Israel's Channel 12 broadcaster, following the earlier conclusion of Israel's War Cabinet meeting:
THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS COMPLETED ITS PREPARATION FOR AN IMMINENT ATTACK AGAINST IRAN
The Times of Israel top headline has switched to: War cabinet decides to hit Iran back hard, hopes it won’t spark regional war
A host of airlines have canceled flights to the region, including the following:
Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.
KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.
Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.
Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.
Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”
IRGC threatens "new equation":
Potentially significant statement by #IRGC chief commander Hossein Salami:
"We have decided to create a new equation [with #Israel]."
This equation is that, from now on, if Israel attacks #Iranian interests, figures, and citizens anywhere, they will retaliate from Iran. 1/ pic.twitter.com/X3i8X74KWI— Farzan Sabet (@IranWonk) April 14, 2024
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Update(1225ET): Israel is looking to "send a message" against Iran, but short of causing outright war and mass casualties, a top level official has told The Washington Post. During Monday's Israel War Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu is reported to have requested defense leaders to draw up a list of targets.
According to Washington Post's reporting:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide target options, according to an official familiar with high-level discussions, who said Israel is looking at options that would “send a message” but not cause casualties.
Those options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.
“Everybody agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, is the question.”
Israeli officials are now signaling to their US counterparts that they would like the White House's backing and coordination for retaliation, however, so far President Biden has urged restraint. This weekend the president clearly said the US will not back an Israeli military attack on Iran, on fears it would spark a bigger war.
Biden has issued what appears an ambiguous statement, and Israel's military says it is preparing:
BIDEN: US COMMITTED TO ISRAEL'S SECURITY AND FOR CEASE-FIRE
* * *
Update(1145ET): Israel's war cabinet has issued a statement, reported in the country's Channel 12 broadcaster, according to breaking reports:
Israel wants to embark on action against Iran coordinated with US, channel 12 says — Reuters
Channel 12 has cited top Israeli ministers to say that the military's objective will be to "hurt Iran without causing all-out war," according to news wires.
But the Biden administration has already said it will not back a retaliatory attack on Iran, amid fears of the situation spiraling into all-out regional war.
As for Tehran, it is warning that in the face of any Israeli assault it will hit back harder. According to BBC Iran correspondent Kasra Naji:
Iran's IRGC commander: in new equation every time Israel attacks our interests, assets, personalities or citizens, we will hit back from our soil. Israel's Def Minister: we won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time we strike targets in Syria.
Recall that before the Saturday night Iranian attack, Israel's leadership vowed that a major response would happen if the Islamic Republic directly attacks Israel from its soil. Indeed that's precisely what Iran did - it launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles directly from its territory.
Meanwhile in Iran:
Iran has lifted suspensions on domestic and international flights from its capital, Tehran, the state-run IRNA news agency reported, possibly signaling a return to stabilization for now.
It comes as Israel weighs its response to the strikes and world leaders call for restraint.
Global airlines faced ongoing disruptions to flights after Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel narrowed options for planes navigating between Europe and Asia.
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Update(1030ET): The Wall Street Journal issued a mid-morning report citing US officials who predict that Israel will quickly launch a military response on Iran, and that it's expected to come as early as today...
U.S. and Western officials anticipate that Israel will quickly respond to Iran’s attacks, as soon as Monday, officials said. But the officials said they hoped both countries could come away with a sense of victory, giving them an off ramp that would limit escalatory moves.
Israel's war cabinet convened again Monday (but there are contradictory reports), however it has as yet issued no clear decision (nothing communicated to the public at least) - and the question of whether the Netanyahu government has decided to pursue retribution on a military level remains open. It will likely be a 'surprise' attack - and the public will hear about it only when missiles are airborne.
The WSJ report is also full of caveats while presenting the alarming assessment of US officials:
Israel might also choose to defer action until a later point. One option is “‘we will respond, but not immediately.’ Iran will give Israel reason to respond and retaliate in future,” said Ehud Yaari, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I think it’s very clear at this point that Israel would have to do something about Iran at some point, but not now,” he added.
⚡Iran's Foreign Minister tells British counterpart: Tehran does not favour increased tension but it will respond instantly and stronger than before if Israel retaliates - state media — Reuters
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 15, 2024
Shortly on the heels of the WSJ quote being issued, Axios issued its own bombshell which points the way to an Israeli response to Tehran being imminent:
Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend, a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call told Axios.
Oil is surging on the twin Axios/WSJ headlines...
Leading European countries, including the UK, France and Germany are pleading for Israel to hold off on fears that the whole region could slide into a major war. The Biden administration has thus far been clear that it does not support Israel retaliation attacks at this point. Biden told PM Netanyahu to "take the win" after Iranian drones and missiles by and large failed to inflict significant damage or casualties.
* * *
As Israel's war cabinet again meets Monday to debate how to respond to Iran's first-ever direct attack on Israel, intense international reaction continues, with leading European countries joining the Biden White House in urging restraint. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have condemned the weekend Iranian attack which saw hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles target Israel, but they are warning against an Israeli counterattack, saying that this would assure that an all out war-is sparked. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that while Israel's mulling a military response is understandable and justified, the country must "think with its head as well as its heart, to be smart as well as tough."
Cameron told BBC the UK's position is that Israel will be better to not retaliate because the Saturday night attack was a "double defeat" for Iran in that its assault failed to result in major damage despite over 350 projectiles launched, and that at the same time Tehran is coming under world condemnation and isolation. Cameron said the aggression has revealed "to the world that [Iran is] the malign influence in the region prepared to do this."
This is consistent with Biden's words to Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Saturday overnight hours when he told the Israeli leader to "take the win" and don't retaliate. The US is hoping Israeli decisions-makers "slow things down" at this point to avoid spiraling into major war. Washington has also affirmed it will not back any Israeli military action against Iran.
French President Emmanuel Macron also acknowledged to a French outlet Monday that the situation is "very unstable" and that Israel must show restraint. "We will do everything to avoid a conflagration," he said to BFMTV news channel.
But Iran has accused Britain, France, and Germany of "double standards" after they all condemned the Iranian attack. On Sunday Iran’s foreign ministry summoned their ambassadors over the "irresponsible stance", according to the semi-official Iranian Labour News Agency.
Iran has further once again lashed out at the UN Security Council, pointing out that it failed to condemn the April 1st Israeli aggression against its consulate in Damascus which killed two top generals and several others. "The Security Council... failed in its duty to maintain international peace and security," Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said during Sunday's session.
He said his country "had no choice" but to react in a "necessary and proportionate" and proportionate way while still asserting the Islamic Republic does not "seek escalation or war." However, he underscored that "If the US initiates military operations against Iran, its citizens, or its security and interests, Iran will use its inherent right to respond proportionately."
Russia too has called for restraint, but defended Iranian actions as done in self-defense. "We have repeatedly warned that the numerous unresolved crises in the Middle East, primarily in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, which are often fueled by irresponsible provocative actions, will lead to an increase in tension," its foreign ministry said.
Unlike the West, Russia firmly condemned the prior Israeli attack on Iran's sovereign embassy:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday held phone talks with Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov reiterated "decisive condemnation" of an Israeli strike in Syria this month that killed Iranian generals.
Russia has previously condemned Israel's conduct in its six-month war in Gaza.
Regional media noted of Moscow's stance: "Russia noted Tehran’s claim that the attack was made within the right to self-defense after the strike in Damascus, which Moscow condemned."
Interestingly, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on Telegram that "America does not want a big war in the Middle East" as "The killings in Gaza worsen Biden’s prospects in the elections, and war between Israel and Iran would introduce additional uncertainty."
The below is some additional commentary via Bill Blain and his Morning Porridge blog...
* * *
But, of course, the big issue is the Middle East.
Markets don’t like uncertainty – even though uncertain markets often offer the best opportunities. The current wisdom is that it’s all utterly dependent on how Israel responds – will they go big with an all-out strike on Iran bases and its nuclear capability, or will they take the apparent win Iran granted them over the weekend?
There has been something of the sense of a well-choregraphed dance between Israel and Iran circling each other over recent weeks and months – very aware it’s not what is done, but how actions are perceived. Everyone expected the well-flagged Iran attack over the weekend. That’s why Oil prices barely wobbled. After a few words of predictable fury, this morning there are signs an Israeli stand down might be on the cards – which would favor markets. Doesn’t mean it’s over – revenge is oft a dish best tasted cold and considered.
The weekend strikes gave Israel a tactical win. After Israel took out key Iranian generals in a pinpoint surgical missile strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, over 300 Iranian missiles, drones and rockets rained down, mostly in broken bits over deserts outside Israeli borders, swotted out the skies by Western and Israeli defence tech. Iron Dome and other systems were shown to work effectively.
While addressing the UN Security Council on Sunday about Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that the Middle East is “on the brink” and that it is “time to defuse and de-escalate”. pic.twitter.com/xlZAGekasX
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) April 15, 2024
But, strategically it might be a win for the Iran/China/Russia Axis. The strike’s apparent abject failure may have been exactly what the Iranian war planners expected. They would be very aware of how Russian drone and missile strikes have fared in Ukraine. The attack would have provided valuable information by forcing Israel to reveal just how effective their top of the range tech defences are at a time when global opinion meant there was a significantly reduced likelihood of a devasting Israeli counterstrike.
The Russians will be factoring countermeasures garnered from the strike into their current glide missile assaults, while the Chinese will already be pouring over the data to determine the practicalities of taking out similarly protected US carrier task forces in the South China Seas at some future date.
* * *
Meanwhile...
David Cameron: Iran attacking Israel was "reckless"
Journalist: What would Britain do if our consulate was flattened?
David Cameron: pic.twitter.com/S7IIeUpRRK— Kevork Almassian🇸🇾🇦🇲 (@KevorkAlmassian) April 15, 2024
UPDATED 10:35 AM EDT - Another Meeting of Israeli War Cabinet Has Begun - Response to Iran Strike
As of 7:30 AM eastern US Time Monday, the Israeli War Cabinet is meeting again to discuss a potential Israeli response to the Iran retaliation.
On April 1, Israel sent F-35 stealth aircraft to fire missiles into Syria, to hit the Iran Embassy Compound. While those missiles did not hit the Iran Embassy itself, they demolished a second building on the same compound, which happened to be the Ambassador's residence.
Apparently, Israel is trying to draw a distinction between the two buildings, claiming one has Diplomatic protection while the other did not. It's a specious argument because both buildings are on the same compound, and the entire compound is Iran sovereign territory.
But the Israelis want to obfuscate that fact to justify what they did. No rational person accepts the Israeli obfuscation.
When that Embassy compound was attacked by Israel, it gave Iran a Casus Belli - cause for war.
Iran then exercised its right under the United Nations Charter, Article 51, to hit back in self defense.
On April 13, Iran hit Israel with missiles and drones.
Most of the attack was intercepted by Israeli, US, UK, and Jordanian defenses, but some few missiles DID get through to targets inside Israel.
This has incensed the Israelis who seem to think that no one has any right to hit them back for anything.
As such, Israel is now contemplating attacking Iran under the pretense of retaliation for Iran's attack.
Now, most stable, mature, rational people, look at the situation in simple terms: Israel hit Iran. Iran hit Israel back. Now, it's over.
But Israel does not seem to be stable, mature, or rational.
So the Israeli War Cabinet is meeting once again today, to decide if Israel will strike Iran.
If they choose to do that, Iran has publicly stated they will respond yet again, only this time, their strike "will be dozens of times stronger."
In fact, just minutes ago, Tehran sent an important and unprecedented warning message to Israel via Cairo; the content of the message concerns the Iranian response to any new Israeli adventure – according to Iranian diplomatic sources.
Nonetheless, I can also report that, at the outset of today's meeting, the Israeli Army Chief of Staff presented response options to the Iranian attack to political leaders.
Will the War Cabinet be stable, mature, and rational? Or will they be arrogant, egotistical, and reckless? Only time will tell.
UPDATE 8:30 AM EDT --
The Israeli War Cabinet is considering an attack on an Iranian facility that would send a message, but would avoid causing casualties, according to an Israeli official.
UPDATE 10:35 AM EDT --
"In order to establish deterrence in the Middle East, you must show them that you've gone berserk and completely lost it."
Israel must 'go beserk', says one war cabinet minister.
That meeting has now adjourned for the time being. May reconvene later.
Given the quote above, I find myself wondering "Do they make this shit up as they go along?" Who, in their right mind, makes a decision about sovereign military action, based on some irrational, personal observation, like the one shown above?
Nothing about this is rational! It's like that country is being run by psychopaths! Basing decisions on imaginary societal situations???? This is madness!
This account says F35’s are already in the air. I regard it as nonsense
Zionist media
War cabinet said set on ‘forceful’ response to Iran, but one that won’t spark wider war
Analysts quoted as saying Israel’s response to Tehran could be ‘as soon as Monday’; Gallant reportedly told US counterpart Israel has ‘no choice’ but to respond to ballistic missiles
Another very predicatible flip-flop
Another lie
Hezbollah ambushes Israel’s Golani Brigade on Lebanon border
The explosive attack came hours after hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles were launched at Israel
Iran attack puts Israeli Rafah invasion on ice: Report
An Israeli military response to Iran's attack would take resources away from continuing the genocide in Gaza
Citing Israeli sources, CNN reported that the Israeli Air Force was set to begin dropping leaflets on parts of Rafah on Monday in preparation for a ground offensive into Gaza’s southernmost city where more than 1 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering from Israel’s six-month bombing campaign.
Those plans were allegedly halted after Iran launched an attack involving some 300 missiles and drones toward Israel late Saturday. Most were intercepted by Israeli anti-missile systems, but several missiles successfully penetrated Israel’s vaunted defenses and hit a key military base and intelligence collection center.
How Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ switched to serious deterrence
Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel were not conducted alone. Strategic partners Russia and China have Tehran’s back, and their role in West Asia’s conflict will only grow if the US doesn’t keep Israel in check.
Pepe Escobar
🔴 Pepe Escobar: Eurasia vs. Natostan is the Defining Struggle of Our Time | Syriana Analysis
Busted: Israeli military "embellishes" video of Iranian attack
The IDF inserted old footage of a Russian Grad missile launch in what was supposed to be a compilation of this weekend's strikes
The Israeli military appears to have inserted seven-year-old footage of a Russian Grad launch into a purported compilation showing the Iranian missile and drone strikes launched against the Jewish state over the weekend.
The video, posted on X (formerly Twitter) with the caption "Israelis' reality in the last hours," has raised many eyebrows online.
While most fragments of the footage show missiles flying over Israeli territory overnight, the final several seconds have nothing to do with either Israel or Iran but rather appear to be footage of the launch of a Russian Grad rocket system that was posted on YouTube back in 2017.
Ronen Bergman, a journalist associated with Mossad, quoted an informed official as saying:
"If the internal discussions among authorities are broadcast on the media, four million people will rush to Ben Gurion Airport to leave Israel."