An escalating trade war between US and Canada
Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “If the US escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-electricity-tariffs-ford-trump-1.7479180
Here is an assessment from Grok. I cannot believe either liberal or MAGA press.
As of March 12, 2025, the conflict between the United States and Canada over tariffs and Ontario's electricity supply has escalated into a significant trade dispute. Here's the latest based on available information:
The conflict stems from U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, which began with a 25% tariff on most imports (except energy, which faces a 10% tariff) that took effect on March 4, 2025. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a retaliatory 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S., effective March 10, 2025. This surcharge affects approximately 1.5 million American homes and businesses in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York, adding an estimated $69–$100 USD per month to their energy bills and generating $300,000–$400,000 daily for Ontario.
Ford has been vocal about his stance, stating on March 10 that the surcharge would remain in place despite Trump’s temporary suspension of some tariffs until April 2, 2025, under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). He emphasized that “pausing some tariffs, making last-minute exemptions — it will not cut it,” and threatened to escalate further by completely cutting off electricity exports if the U.S. intensifies its tariff measures. Ford has not specified a precise threshold for this action but has repeatedly underscored his willingness to use energy as leverage, saying, “If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely.”
The U.S. tariffs were initially a response to concerns over illegal immigration and drug smuggling, though only 0.2% of U.S. fentanyl seizures in 2024 occurred at the Canadian border, compared to 96.6% at the Mexican border. Trump has also floated the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, further straining relations. On the Canadian side, the federal government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has supported a robust response, with retaliatory tariffs on $20.7 billion USD worth of U.S. goods announced alongside Ontario’s measures.
The electricity surcharge has tangible impacts. In New York, which imported nearly 3% of its total energy from Ontario in 2023, and in parts of Minnesota and Michigan, grid operators like the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) and Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) are assessing the fallout. While MISO expects minimal disruption due to Canada supplying less than 1% of its total energy, NYISO has raised concerns about reliability and wholesale market effects. Analysts note that the U.S. Northeast, particularly upstate New York, could face steeper price hikes given its higher reliance on Canadian power during peak demand.
Sentiment on X reflects a mix of defiance and concern. Some users celebrated Canada’s pushback, with posts like “Canada standing up against Trump” gaining traction, while others speculated on March 11 that Ontario might suspend the surcharge, though no official confirmation supports this as of today.
Economists warn that this tit-for-tat could harm both nations. Canada risks a recession, with potential GDP drops of 2.5% and 150,000 layoffs by 2026 if tariffs persist, while U.S. consumers face higher costs for energy and goods. Ford has urged other provinces, like Alberta with its oil exports, to join the retaliation, though Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith has resisted, highlighting regional divisions within Canada.
The situation remains fluid. Trump’s partial tariff pause suggests negotiation room, but Ford’s hardline stance and Trudeau’s backing indicate Canada is prepared for a prolonged standoff unless the U.S. fully relents. No further escalations or resolutions have been reported as of this morning, March 12, 2025, leaving the next move uncertain.
